I write about OTG, boats, politics, engine repairs, firewood, my wife, economics, aging….kind of an eclectic grab-bag of my daily-life thoughts. I spare you dinner recipes but they occupy more than just a bit of my mind-space, too. And, of course, now and then, I mention the dogs (almost 14 months old and still growing!). This all about someone else!
In a sec….first me, of course.…..There is no denying that I have a bit of a doomsday streak running through a lot of what I write. The End of Days kinda thing. “Git yerself a cabin in the woods if ya wanna survive the Zombie Apocalypse!” “Get out. Get OUT NOW!!!” “Climate Change is coming!” “It’s here!!!!”
I can get a little hysterical.
I’ve been trying to tone it down a bit. “The sky is falling” gets a bit lame after awhile…..altho, the sky is dropping large balloons lately…jus’ sayin’…..
I have also been up front about all that – my dramatic warnings stem from a lack of good scientific data and information, media manipulation and a healthy but unchecked imagination. I tend to believe some of the ‘others’ when they warn us and ignore the ‘stupid others’ that say otherwise – but I do not know who is who. Not really. And I am not a researcher. I mostly go on feelings, inferential scanning (unconscious observation) and whatever madness comes with getting older. I am not really much of a bona fide source of anything except, perhaps, that I acted on my feelings. But so did Evel Knievel (and his son). Feelings are not always enough.
I mention all this because I just discovered an even more obnoxious, more arrogant, prognosticator than myself and he claims to actually KNOW something. His name is Peter Ziehan and he is a Geopolitical Futurist. He is a bit hard to listen to because he likes himself a bit too much. Even worse, he speaks faster than my cerebral absorption rate. I can barely keep up. If he says something I question (or do not hear quite right) he has already said three other things before I can scramble back aboard the Ziehan train. I really should not be too critical of his style, tho. I kinda like the guy in a ‘fellow-boorish‘ kinda way.
But having ‘style’ does not mean he is wrong. And I think there is an element of logic and accuracy to what he is saying. He is saying that the last 35 years have been mankind’s most enriching, most peaceful, most cooperative and most productive years in world history.
And they are now over.
And that Golden era was because of a few key things: The US kept international shipping lanes, safe. Globalization allowed countries, with only one or two things to offer for trade, to get other products and so further develop themselves. It was that new global trading synergy that created new markets and floated all boats. Plus we (mostly First World (FW) but including 2nd and eventually third world countries, too) had the labour and a system to make good use of it – i.e. Capitalism and the baby boomers.
He is big on Geography, too. Geography is and was a destiny definer throughout history. Still a huge factor for him. And, as an aside, he thinks the USA (the NAFTA zone, actually) enjoys the best geography in the world. It is the only large geographical entity that can run wholly independent of other countries. (There are a few other small ones that have the ‘right stuff’ like New Zealand and France.) Most countries NEED to still trade with FW foreign devils so as to better develop their burgeoning and infant societies. North America can continue on with just domestic devils.
He also notes that globalization is in retreat. The USA is backing away from being the world’s policeman. Nation states (autocrats) are re-asserting isolation/independence to their own and everyone’s detriment. He claims China is almost done, primarily due to population imbalance, Covid, poor soil, autocracy and trade dependence. He claims Russia is done. The Middle East is unsustainable without free trade — they don’t grow food! You need good geography, properly-balanced demographics, robust and varied agriculture and across-the-board industry – only the US has all that in abundance.
Covid exacerbated all that was going to become a disaster anyway as nations fade into oblivion caused by their aging populations and/or bad management. The Russia Ukraine war and climate change is adding to the deglobalization trend. We are all, it seems, downsizing — some quicker and more catastrophically than others.
But the biggest negative influence on the status quo is the aging of the First world. Consumption is falling. Workers are retiring. Capital is constricted. There are not enough young people to replace the retirees and the immigrants who are younger are not as skilled or integrated. Growth has been ruled out. Do not even hold your breath for the status quo.
We are doomed!
Well……..we are doomed to ‘transition’, anyway. Change is underway. BIG CHANGE is underway. HUGE CHANGE IS UNDERWAY. Maybe it will turn out to be a blessing?
In fact, Ziehan says this month is a bit of a reveal. It seems February 2023 is when the Baby Boomers wave of retirement really peaks. And transition time is for a long period, probably…well….it is hard to say…..because we do NOT know what we are transitioning to……but he figures it will take a two or three generations at least to sort out the new ‘world order’. It won’t be an easy transition and he has stated that those fifty years or so will experience great hardship and many countries and populations will go without what we have all come to expect. Life will get harder. Food choices reduced. Food volumes reduced. Trade and wealth around the world will drop. Much of the world will regress, devolve……
Ziehan makes me look like Mr. Sunshine.
So…let the sun shine in….he has not factored in robots, artificial intelligence, ingenuity or even technology — not really. He has not opined that Gaia might appreciate a rest and recuperation period as populations fall and abuse lessens. He has not considered the rise of the few countries that have young populations (sub-Saharan and South America) or those youngish, such as India and some SE Asian countries. There should be a lot less war (again, fewer young people). Nor has he considered the one aspect of our species that has served us the best – adaptability.
Regardless…Ziehan has entered the conversation with a new perspective…..something to think about.