…the disease de jour.
As you know, I poo-poohed the coronavirus somewhat a blog or two ago. Still do, actually. Altho Italy and Iran have just had some dramatic events that shook my cynicism. Iran’s Deputy Health Minister just got it! So, I am thinking it all over again.
And, worse than just being deeply cynical, I have actually been WRONG on a few occasions….OK, MANY occasions….but usually my stupidity has caused no one any harm. This maybe-a-mistake by me might be a problem.
The point: I have to re-think. I could be wrong. In a more circumspect approach, I have decided to re-look at Coronavirus and adjust my views accordingly.
Approximately 77,000 affected. Approximately 3000 deaths. NOT abnormal.
BUT….still it is growing……BUT, still it is NOT growing as fast…..BUT….it is growing quite fast in places less prepared than others. Canada has been prepared somewhat better than say, Italy or Iran or even the Great-Again USA. Hmmmmm…..what does all that mean? I dunno…..I am not a doctor specializing in virus epidemics…..still….facts and formal education have never influenced my opinion…. so I am writing this blog to express what I think.
I THINK WE HAVE JUST NOTCHED UP TO DEFCON FOUR!
…..but what do they say? WHO. CDC. You know? The ‘experts’ who are supposed to direct us, save us, save the world…you know…THEM?
Almost every ‘expert’ says, “Don’t panic!” Almost every expert also says, “This panic is mostly social media driven.” Almost every China-watcher says, “It may be mostly social media driven but the official media has been lying so social media is maybe more honest. Maybe….PANIC?”
Once again: the experts are mostly useless.
So, let’s back up a bit. We know it is a flu-like virus. We know that flus tend to come and go and are, weirdly, seasonal. We know that this one is not yet any more lethal than normal flu or maybe just a bit worse than normal flu. So, what do we really know?
We know that the global economy means that virtually any communicable disease cannot be contained unless it originates in a poor country where the citizenry doesn’t travel very much. Congolese do not compete with the Germans, Swiss or Aussies in globe-trotting. Ergo, Ebola-in-Congo was kept more contained. It was, at first, just a horrific local disease. Then, with ‘complications’, it came out and hit a broader region but still, thank God, it was kept to within a few countries around the DRC (Congo).
But…Ebola in Chicago? Traveling by way of O’Hare? That would make the Bubonic Plague look like the sniffles.
So plague is somewhat/very much restricted by conveyance. If you are ill and travel by donkey, then you infect fewer than if you travel by 737. China? Somewhere in between. In between is NOT good. Hard to measure. Hard to envision. Impossible to control. Experts know even less.
THEN we have China….the land of secrets, home of the inscrutable, a society that thinks from the top down. They are a government of liars, with a media controlled by government. Net result: no one knows diddly squat.
So, where does that leave us? To be honest, if I was 21 and healthy, I’d volunteer to help others. If I got the disease, I’d be sick, wonder about my sanity and very likely fight it off, get healthy and then have immunity. Mission accomplished.
But I am not 21. And every cold, flu, infection, infestation, malaise and illness that even flies over the local school – which I never go to – will eventually get to me. Flu is literally the six degrees of separation theory proven out time and time again. One kid gets sick in Malaysia and six months later, I am eventually laid low. We are all at risk!
But what are we at risk of? If it is just the flu, even a bad one, bring it on. I’ll prevail. I am old but still healthy. I am afraid but not overly so. But, if it is a mutating, changing, alternating form of disease that we can’t seem to get under control, then we have a problem. We have a big problem. And living OTG will NOT be the answer.
Let us hope that my cynicism is well placed.