I am assuming that you have all kept up with the C-19 pandemic. I am sure most people have all over the world. But I am writing because I just changed my mind/attitude/fear level AGAIN. I now think it is worse by twice….meaning: I am thinking about taking a few extra steps.
“What changed your mind?”
Ontario Health is projecting our ‘lockdown’ or response phase on this virus may last as long as 24 months. That’s a possible game changer. It feels like it might be.
C-19 is a killer. People will die. It will get much uglier. But that is NOT what changed my mind. I already knew that. Death happens. Sometimes in bunches. For me, the bigger issue is the prolonged time. Two years is massively disruptive to a pretty fragile, just-in-time, built-for-profit social system.
Emergencies that last a few days, seem to change little (like ice storms, blackouts, etc.) for the larger society. Emergencies that endure a couple of weeks make much more significant impacts (Hurricanes, floods, battles and terrorism) and, when that happens, the local area is in a rebuilding/renovation phase for a considerably longer time (Haiti, Katrina, etc) – weeks and months. But a slow-burn, drawn-out crisis has the potential for changing supply lines, institutions, services, civil behaviours, even infrastructure.
Twenty four months of disruption may derail our modern society even more significantly than might a natural disaster that we had previously found more common. For those ‘common’ disasters we seem to have some kind of typical response plan even if those responses are usually found somewhat wanting for those suffering.
We do not have such a plan for this emergency. We do not have a typical response to this. And, worse, it seems that the response we do have is already strained to the max as well as starting to come apart. And the virus is still in the growth phase. I do not think the ‘system’ can hold for 24 months.
When I say that, I am not implying chaos and anarchy, zombies and armed Bubbas, starvation and contagion. I am not suggesting that this is the apocalypse. But I am saying that such a possibility is now (possibly) on the radar. Disruption is likely approaching. I feel I have to at least think about it. A lot. And I feel as if I had better be prepared to act on my new thoughts.
I am not alone. If the general population is steady now at say, Defcon 5 (alert and responding), I am at Defcon 2. (freaked). I just feel as if I have to do more.
Well, we have enough food and water for months. But not 24 months unless I start to kill deers and, even then, that is helluva lot of venison sandwiches to suffer through. So food supplies have to be looked at. And so it goes. Our medications will not last that long either. Gas for the boat? Propane for the stove? And that is just the OBVIOUS wrenches-in-the-works that pop up. As you know, an emergency is something very hard to plan for. What will the next emergent’event’ look like?
“Dave! Calm down.”
I am calm. But, when things change, it is prudent to adjust to the change. I think Ontario Health just changed the BIG picture.