I truly do not know if it helps anyone to know about terrible things. Some things, I suppose, need knowing but the vast majority of bad news is just something that ‘happens to others’ or is ‘something we have no control over’. Even that which is horrific and close-to-home is rather easily forgotten even if we feel the effects for a bit.
This might be different. It fits with the above but, well, it is the worst and so I am sharing….apologies.
Bullets, beans, bumwad and bullion….the bible is assumed.
Yeah. But, if you look at the least touched area say, Tierra del Fuego, within months it is so bloody cold you can’t even breathe. If the simulation is right, then being totally ‘prepped’ just allows for a later date for your trip over the River Styx. Wim is rightly concerned ’cause he’s next door. But, within months (and maybe hours) we are all history. It is NOT news. Not really. But I had no idea that every single part of the planet, bar none, would be in ‘a nuclear winter’ and most of us are dead at stage 2 – the fallout stage.
What was it Einstein answered when asked what type of weapons would be used in WWIII?
” I don’t know what type of weapons will be used in WWIII but everyone will be using sticks and stones in WWIV”
Keep chopping and splitting firewood for the stove.
And I thot this constant rain from the low clouded overcast sky was bad…
As Jordan Perterson said, “If you think strong men can be hard n rough, wait till you see what weak men can do.”, or words to that effect.
I am thankful for my very Happy Life NOW, and my scotch collection should things pan out that way.
Take good care all. 🙏 This David.
The Great Filter.
It had occurred to me that some fossil fuel tanked up prepper madman might desire a nuclear winter. I don’t know why I think the worst of nut jobs.
I am sure some of those nutjobs might express that verbally but only because they’re caught up in their own fantasies. They just do not expect a nuclear winter. They will be Loons til the end. Melted nut-bars holding melted rifles.
If that’s the case, they will get a surprise.
At least I’m pretty sure I won’t live long enough to die from radiation/cold or starvation. I think I’ll be dead with half an hour. So not much use in stocking food and supplies I guess
No, you are right. Just buy one banana at a time. But NOT green ones!
Maybe we should have followed your advice and moved to Read Island, at least it would buy us a few weeks or months. Let’s wait now untill may 9th and see what Putin pulls out of his sleeve. It seems he wants to take the Azov steel plant by the 9th of may, so he can call it a victory and have some kind of victory parade in the streets of Marioepol. And FED has raised intrest with 0.5 points, and will do the same mid june and end of july….this will be a major boost to recession, Powell still claims we will have a “soft landing”, whatever that means!
I think it is unlikely that Putin ups the ante by going nuclear. Even dropping a small nuke on one spot would be sufficient for NATO to go nuts. THAT may NOT mean they turn Russia into a rubble parking lot but it does mean that Russia would be seen as a pariah state everywhere in the world and would be isolated for a long, long time. And, of course, some Russians will get to Putin pretty quickly to express some extreme prejudice.
It would take a helluva lot of brilliant propaganda (with no counter from the west) for Putin/Kremlin to sell the battle of Azov as a victory. Even if they do take the steel plant within the next few days, it is obvious that that was not the main reason for the invasion and losing 25000 troops and millions of tons of armaments is simply way too high a price for any kind of such claim. I would not like to be in Europe right now but, really…? If it all goes sideways, it makes little difference where you are. Even Read ain’t safe it seems. If it does NOT go sideways then Russia just slowly withers from within. Putin, like his friend, the BIG Cheeto, is really just a major loser who only appeared to be a winner by cheating.
Russia has already lost 1100 tanks, 77 advanced aircraft, two major warships, dozens of smaller vessels, countless general vehicles and 25,000 troops…..not to mention sabotaged plants and depots in Russia and the economic toll from the sanctions. Was Azov worth it? Even Azov and all of Donbas……Methinks Putin really screwed himself and his people and that message will eventually sink in to the somewhat ill-informed Russian public. When the worm turns, Putin is disappeared.
The west should drop in a few radio stations and mobile TV studios to beam directly into Russia to maybe speed that up….
“Soft landing” is a term used to mean economic slowdown but NOT a recession. But Powell can’t really control either. Interest rates are a major leverage but the economy turns on many other forces like supply chain interruption, war, pandemics and, of course, the China ‘engine’. The Fed used to have more of an influence than it does now. Now, there are stronger global forces at work like Climate Change and the psychological shift in the attitude of workers……and buying patterns, social division, the aging population….. add it all up and the influence of the Feds interest rate has weakened to less than it was. The ‘economy’ is really just the manifestation of group-think, group-mood, group-action. It is just a construct based on our collective moods and there are few who understand the global mindset. Personally, I think recession is NOT on the table but stagflation is. I think we are going into a prolonged no-growth, high-expense era that will be exacerbated hugely by climate change. Without an official US based recession, the poor will get poorer and the world will ‘get on the move’ just to survive what Mother Nature does. Put more bluntly, WdG, I’d sell everything and move to a climate-safe place………(is there such a place?).
i think Putin has no choice but to ramp up the War and side with his general who are furious at being embarrassed.
Russian Generals and the dictator don’tt care if it costs 50,000 troops to “win” .
They will pound Ukraine to dust and then squat in the middle of the rubble and brag about their “greatness”
It may take 12 months. It may take 12 years.
They dont care.
Putin will say and do anything to remain in power.
Eventually his “supporters” will sense weakness and take him out.
Unfortunately that will take far too long to save the people who’s lives are destroyed by his foray.
Keep an eye on wheat crops and the price of food for the entire world now that Ukraine can’t grow or ship and Russia is stuck.
France has experienced a dry Spring and are expecting a heat wave tnext week….just before spring plants commences.
I expect food riots all over the Middle East, Africa and South East Asia this year as people react to exploding prices and scarce supplies..
Thanks Vlad….you miserable prick.
I certainly agree that commodities are ‘in the mix’ and especially foodstuffs. How ya gonna keep ’em down on the farm now that the climate has changed? I think migration is a really big issue and a bigger one than even the Fed’s interest rate. As for Vlad? I can’t disagree but he has some constraints. He’s lost 12 or so generals and all that equipment. His troops seem to be ill-trained, ill-equipped and unmotivated. Ramping up the ‘war’ might not be an option. CONTINUING the war is an option but if he could have ramped up, he would have done so for May 9th.
Check out the preparations for the Moscow May Day celebrations.
Biggest in Years…….
I know what the term “soft landing” means, I was just trying to be a bit sarcastic ;-). In Europe, a lot of (young) people have been buying houses the last year that were hugely overpriced (also fueled by Covid, because suddenly everyone wanted a house with a garden). They overstretched themselves on their loans (fueled by low interest rates – mostly flexible). Now throw in a rise of 2.5 points….a LOT of the will not be able to pay their loans, and a new real estate bubble might be on the verge of bursting. And a lot of businesses are on the verge of bankrupcy as well. So I don’t think it will be a soft landing at all. An I agree, global economics are steered by a happy few, who control everything. But in the end, it is us who always pay the bill!
As for Putin, I agree with noncon, the guy can not back down and he and his generals already lost their faces, so they will push till the end, no matter how many lives it costs. I think the average russian does not yet really knows what is going on, the propaganda machine of Putin is at top speed.
I have seen that prices of real estate on Vancouver island are still very high. Any sign of the real estate market cooling down in the islands?
Real estate in Canada rarely actually falls. During recessions, people just suck it up and somehow pay the mortgage. Sales usually plummet because the typical Canuck would rather suffer for a few years rather than sell at a loss. Canadian real estate is a Canadian’s savings/retirement account.
Our mortgages are NOT tax deductible and the debts are all personal. Give the keys back to the bank and they just sell it to a ‘client’ in the know and still expect full payment for the balance of the mortgage. In the US, the mortgage payments are tax deductible and, if things go sideways, the homeowner just hands over the keys and walks away free. Different system.
As for the market ‘out here’ in the boondocks? Well this market is also a different market. At least half the properties for sale are not listed. So, it is harder to tell what actually transpires but, as of today, what I know is for sale is listed pretty high and sells close to asking. Even ten years ago the prices were ‘reasonable’ and very negotiable. Now, not so much. Still, if a guy had the ‘juice’ to build his home by himself, a nice property can still be had in the $200K area. Some lots would be lower priced but smaller, some larger and a better/acre price. $200K could get a nice ocean view acreage of 5 to ten acres depending on how remote you went. I think.
It will be interesting to watch the prices of Real Estate in Canada and BC over the next 6-12 months.
The sales of houses has fallen off a cliff in March and April while new listings are starting to climb.
My view for what its worth.
Canadians are way over their heads in debt and it’s been 35 years since the last real estate meltdown.
Anyone that remembers the early 1980’s probably doesnt have a $1 million dollar mortgage and a huge line of credit.
Almost 50% of Canadian mortgages are with “secondary” institutions ( not the Big 6 banks or Credit Unions) Secondary Loans which charge higher rates and usually only have a 1 year renewal .
The financial gurus are expecting another 0.5% bank rate hike June 1st and possibly another 0.5% in July or August if the Cost of Living continues on its sprint upwards. ($3/lt gas by July 1st? $6 Bread?).
A 5.0% Bank of Canada prime rate by Christmas wouldnt surprise me.
Which means a 6% rate for preferred customers and 6.5% mortgage for the rest of us plebes.
Million dollar mortgages just got a whole lot more unattainable when they jump from $3500/ month to $5500/month
The entire real estate market needs a kick in the teeth and a big reset.
$2 million dollars for a 50 year old moldy house in a lousy neighborhood of Surrey is ludacris was happening in Feb of this year……not any more.
Hang on to your hats over the next 12-24 months.
I agree. But I disagree a bit….nothing moves that quickly (12 months) and, like the frog in the pot of water being heated, the pressure and pain will build as the rats keep running in place too exhausted and confused to even think about it. Maybe it hits ’em in 24 to 36 months, tho, before they know they are in the soup! But I do agree that there will be a reckoning and it is looming. The problem for me is that the banks will post profits, the oil companies will post profits, the big corps will post profits and the young couple who swallowed hard and signed up for a large mortgage, the old folks who are financially marginal, the homeless and the ill-equipped will just bottom out. They do not have the ability to take a punch like that.
Btw…did ya know that 59% interest rate is legal? And it is being commonly charged….. not so much by the secondary (B-banks) but rather the cheque-cashing and pay-day loan companies. They are hitting the poorest (and dumbest) for as much as 59% interest annually. 60%, it seems, is deemed illegal and usurious but, in a day and age where a good customer can borrow at prime but a dummy can’t, the dummy just gets driven down further. This is an insane system and I am proud to know a guy who can stick-handle through it (you) but, for immigrants, the poor, the ill-equipped, the under-educated and the young/innocents, it is a minefield designed to bury them. Do I KNOW this? Yes. A friend whose ex-wife was an innocent immigrant ‘borrowed’ from them at that rate. She had no idea what she had signed. She had no idea how it was that, by making her payments, her balance owing had not changed! When he looked into it for her, he saw what a trap she was in and paid off the loan. If he hadn’t, she’d be paying for the rest of her life.
Capitalism is OK. But it has been corrupted. Bottom line: get out. GET OUT NOW!
I am more inclined to follow noncons timeline, that within 12 months tops we we will a very hard landing (and not a soft one as Powell claims). Apart from all the categories you mention, a lot of companies will sot survive for another 12 months. And what if husband and/or wife loses the job that pays the mortgage?
OK, so Poetin’s speech has passed, and no mobilisation of reserve forces and (for the moment) no nuclear threat. So I guess I can now buy ripe banana’s for 2 days. Life suddenly got a lot better! However, gasoline is climbing again to highest level ever. Let’s wait and see what the short term impact will be on global economics. On the other hand, Europe still wants to ban import from Russian oild and gas by end of this year. And OPEC does not want to support Europa by pumping up more oil. So we will have to rely on US and Norway (maybe we should speak to your prime Minister?)
I’m thinking the ONLY way to stop Putin…. is a complete ban on Russian Oil and Gas.
Apparently Margret Thatcher’s concerns back in the 1980’s about Russia holding Europe hostage were valid….
Stop all European fuel purchases from Russia until Putin is out…
Short term pain for long term gain .
If they shut everything down now…. it might be back on by winter.
It will reduce Russia’s cash by approximately $44 BILLION dollars PER MONTH.
That kind of cash buys a lot of Chinese missiles and planes.
But the shortages are starting to show.
Lets see what Putin does as things get more desperate for him and his corrupt cronies.
The Russian people are naturally cynical and the longer the sanctions drag on…. the angrier they will get.
And Putin’s propaganda machine seems to be getting more shrill by the day.
Which rat will bite him first.
The way I imagine it (from Mission Impossible movies) is that there are western sympathizers in the Kremlin wings. SOMETHING is afoot. The tactic the west is waiting on is ‘how do the sympathizers take Putin out’? The sanctions are good. Ukraine resistance is really good. And so the time just keeps on ticking against Putin. The knives are at the ready.
Steady as she goes, and wait for the opportunity. Grind. He only gets weaker. That kind of tactic relies on patience and tolerance of the western and global economies. A hard slog for sure but a very likely victory in the end.
Translation: growing inflation eased a bit by subsidies and grants and maybe even price freezes and tax breaks. Still, it is really stagflation – you can buy ripe bananas but can’t afford them. You can buy gas but everyone tries not to drive. You cut back, tighten your belt and complain. Some idiots will even blame their current leaders and vote for the ‘other guy’. It is that threat of the ‘other guy’ that will keep the governments as generous as they can in the circumstance. Putin cannot last a year, I think. December 2022 will not see a good time at the Putin household. The west could stretch to three easily enough. But Ukraine still has to prevail or lose slowly for that to work out. The west has to up the pressure but not so much that Putin looks like the victim. If all that fails, it is then up to Tom Cruise on a motorcycle in slow-mo.
As for Canada supplying gas and oil? We do not have pipelines that go east from Alberta. Not yet anyway. Keystone may be quietly revisited and we feed the US which then feeds Europe…maybe… I doubt even that….
Trudeau will have to “Eat the Enviromental Cake” and build pipelines too if he wants a safer world in the short term.
As for Putin?
The age old Russian way to deal with their unpopular “Leaders” is usually poison ( he has multiple taste testers) or stood against a wall and shot.
I’m thinking poison made to look like a heart attack.
He will be 70 in Oct.
So a heart attack is “sellable” to the people. Deniable and they can blame “The West”
He’s in a gilded cage called “Mother Russia” with nowhere to go if he steps down.
He’s burnt toast any way you slice it.
Banning oil and gas completely is a valid option….if only….for China and India. They have already made clear that they are ready to buy whatever surplus Russia has because of the European oil ban. They are already buying Russian oil and gas at prices 30% below market value. So where does that leave us Europeans? We ban oil and gas, prices in Europe increase dramatically (gasoline went up again yesterday) and Putin laughs, because he keeps selling his oil and gas and feeding his warmachine. And we pay the bill….again! In summertime, its easier to cut back on heating, but wait untill winter starts again and we have blackouts because of shortages. Let’s hope somebody poisons him before winter starts
I hope so. It is kinda tragic that his actions have painted a bullseye on his forehead for all the world to see. He made that war all about him and so ending the war is all about him ending. Normally, murder that blatant is hard to hope for but, for the want of his assassination, others will surely die in the thousands. China does not surprise me…the Chinese culture is always pragmatic in the extreme. But India should be ‘backing’ the west on this.
Yeah, China is no surprise.
No love lost for the West and if they can save some money…. win!
India deserves a kick in the teeth for what they have done.
Oh well. If India and China crank up a war against each other I wonder if Russia will supply them both with military parts.