A surprising turn of events….that has taken over seven years to show up

Putin seen fleeing Moscow just a few hours ago. His generals either hiding, running or already captured in or near Rostov-on-Don inside Russia. All of this happening at the hands of Moscow’s own highly regarded ‘private army’, the mercenary Wagner Group. And all of this, presumably, within the last 36-48 hours.

Surprise? Not really. Moscow’s regular army was not doing well conducting their part in the Ukraine invasion and so Putin contracted Wagner’s mercenary brigade a year ago that promptly emptied jails and prisons to expand their numbers of soldiers at the front. Thousands of those convicts (some likely innocent given that they were sent there by Putin) were then deployed by Wagner on the front lines at Bakmut (Ukraine) and vast numbers were killed in that incredibly hard-fought battle. Wagner blamed Moscow for their difficulties in Bakmut and accused the generals of depriving them of support, food and bullets. Bad blood brewed amongst the Russians.

That little internal conflict began months ago. Recently a bunch of Russian missiles were dropped on a concentration of Wagner’s forces. That made matters much, much worse.

Yevgeny Prigozhin is the head of Wagner and he got really mad at that deadly recent debacle. Oooh… and he said few days ago that he was going to turn around from fighting Ukrainians and go on a March of Justice back to find the top generals, Shoigu and Gerasimov, to give them a piece of his mind and, well, maybe chop them into smaller pieces as part of his angry expression.

That statement and subsequent 180 turnaround put Wagner fighting the Russian army. Like, yesterday! Putin called in some favours from neighbouring countries (Chechnya, Belarus, etc) asking for more fighters and, since no favours were actually owed, he got no support there. So Putin called on his existing army to stop and arrest Prigozhin as a traitor. That has not gone well, either. Thousands of Russians troops have turned their backs, a deaf ear and closed their eyes as Wagner drove by. Prigozhin is moving North out of Ukraine towards Moscow unhindered.

As it was so well put by Beau of the Fifth Column; “….a year ago, Russia had the second strongest military force in the world. Six months ago, they had the second strongest military force in Ukraine. Today, they have the second strongest military force in Russia”.

But, think about it….the last seven or so years have been history changing. The world has gone through massive upheaval. A spoiled brat, ignorant, bigot ascended the presidency of the United States and succeeded in dividing it and alienating most of the US allies. He lied, cheated, stole, grifted, groped and golfed his way through four years of incompetence at everything he touched. President Pig was and still is popular. And, in my opinion, he did a lot of that with the help of Russian money and what has come to be known as trolling-the-net. Basically, an internet-based form of the Cold War.

Trump, as the worst president in the history of the United States has, despite that, made one of the biggest impressions on the world, his own country and he almost destroyed it all. Trump made evil but still massive history. There will eventually be more words written about Trump than that of any five or more other presidents combined. Maybe Putin……

My point: evil and incompetence also makes history. Trump and Putin. Tweedle Trump and Tweedle Putin. Dumb and Dumber. These guys made an impact. A HUGE impact.

And, to be fair, I didn’t see it…….

….well, of course I SAW it. And I also kinda didn’t. I knew Putin corruptly presided over Russia. I knew Russia was trying to screw everyone over the internet trolls. Everyone saw Putin jail Navalny, throw people off balconies, Oligarchs buy yachts, Russia bully and fight with Ukraine. The world watched as dark, evil Russian influence expanded and worse, gained some semblance of acceptance.

And we all saw a lazy, corrupt, narcissist grifter in the White House for four years. We all saw lying, cheating, criminal behaviour becoming normalized. I watched the crap flow, the ugly enablers hang on. I watched them all get rich. I watched them flaunt their crimes. I watched them attack democracy. I watched their nation divide.

But, basically, I just watched the madness continue. I did not foresee the end game. To be fair, I was openly hoping the whole time for a comeuppance, a reckoning, a final and just outcome. Just one small victory for good over evil would help. But I was not holding my breath. I just saw no light at the end of the tunnel. De Santis went after Disney. George Santos won a seat in the house. Harlon Crowe and Clarence Thomas slid out from under a rock along with Alito and other Supreme Court Justices. Fox News got richer. Turkey’s Erdogan shone. The House of Saudi did business with Jared Kushner. Xi rattled swords over the South China Sea and Taiwan. It all just seemed as if the world was getting darker.

And then…..and then…..well……I still don’t know……but Jack Smith and the DOJ give me hope. Putin fleeing Moscow gives me hope. China will likely tone it down a bit as Russia implodes. NATO might breathe a bit easier….so might Ukraine. The mini-tyrants will shut up for awhile. I think Trump will go to jail or die soon……DeSantis is done. So is Santos. So may be the current GOP. Crooks will go to jail.

I dunno….the last seven or so years was more than just interesting times…don’t you think?

And, well, the surprises just keep coming…

Late this afternoon, Wagner stopped their march on Moscow (125 miles from the city) and turned for the more ‘neutral’ Belarus. The president of Belarus (Lukashenko), acting as a mediator, brokered a deal wherein Wagner gets away free, no charges will be brought to Prigozhin or his forces by Putin. And, well, peace reigns once again….or peace between the Russians, anyway. I suppose Putin will continue to prosecute the war on Ukraine but, well, Putin was starting to lose that war when he HAD Wagner. Now he does not have Wagner. Maybe Putin does a re-think?

Ukraine’s Zelensky, on the other hand, is a tad disappointed in this new twist. “What, Yevgeny?! You get to within the Moscow city limits and you quit?”

Smarter strategists than me opine that Wagner, for all their fighting superiority compared to the regular Russian army, simply do not have the numbers to take on Russia. They are far too outnumbered. So, citing the desire not to slaughter fellow Russians (or be slaughtered by fellow Russians) Wagner took the face-saving route west to Belarus.

What do I think? No idea….Fred K thinks Putin still controls Russia and it is hard to ignore the reality of that…but, gee, can any leader (ruthless or otherwise) not see the writing on the wall? There is a significant disgruntlement amongst Russians. Their neighbours are not happy. Their economy is struggling (less than it should) and they have lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers in a globally condemned war with Ukraine….not to mention starting to actually LOSE that war with Ukraine. Now they have significant if not crippling division within their ranks. Russia does NOT look like a winner.

Speaking of which, Fred also suggested that Trump ain’t done. And, again, I can see why that is still a fair observation….but, but, but….I think Jack Smith and the DOJ are gonna drop another indictment soon. This one will be bigger. This one has the ‘fake electors’ scheme. Fanni Willis (Georgia) will indict and E. Jean Carroll will continue to whack away at his dwindling fortune with lawsuit #2 – should get huge damages. His cronies are going down. Hard. Methinks some in his family may face charges, too.

I dunno, I am no seer. I see fog looking at Putin but I see conviction when looking at Trump.

Seven years of ‘interesting times’ looks like only 70% of what is to come.

13 thoughts on “A surprising turn of events….that has taken over seven years to show up

  1. The Wagner group stood down since you wrote this post. Wagner’s army is small comparatively speaking. Putin like the dictators before him has an iron grip on the institutions and mechanisms of power—

    He has an unhappy contract army on his hands. I wonder how long their leader will last now that an investigation for treason is underway. Putin has been very successful in killing high-profile dissenters. Admittedly Putin’s grip has been weakened – for he has been openly challenged without immediate consequences.

    And Trump- he is far from done. One only has to watch the polls and the behavior of the congress. He could yet win another general election— Just saying……

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  2. Keep sharing your writing about the the now current world history as it is changing Dave. The fear and hate and wanting it all for ‘their way for themselves’ has shown realities as they happened in the world in the past few years. Please keep writing and sharing as you find. Remember when we were young and our happy little Canadian world let us follow our dreams as we aged and became the adults we became and we had such wonderful plans for our kids.
    Joy

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    • I know. It just keeps comin’…. If you refresh the same ol’ old blog page, there’s an epilogue at the bottom….mind you, by tomorrow morning all of it could change again.

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  3. News flash! (Or just a conspiracy theory) Could all this be a brilliant Putin plot, stagging the mutiny, sending Prigozhin to Belarus in exile with 20-30,000 troops so they can do a sneak attack on Ukraine. There is rumor that Shoigv is out, that would allow Prigozhin to fill in. The plot thickens!

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  4. That is a plot straight out of Hollywood. Mission Impossible. Ya can’t move a ‘private army’ all over the place and still have it battle ready for a surprise flank attack. And, anyway, V. Zelensky is a smart enough cookie to ‘track’ Wagner. Even if he wasn’t the US is and they have been doing that by satellite for a year. Wagner can’t hide.
    Putin being brilliant? Shoigu may be out (yet another window) but waddabout Garisimov? And really, does it matter what Putin puppet is in the boardroom wearing stars on their shoulder? Methinks there is not a single Russian who is a major or above who wants to be promoted right now.

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  5. Indeed, strange twist of plot. But you could see it coming. First he refused to keep defending Bahmut for lack of support from the Russian generals, he openly critisized Putin.
    And I disagree with Frederic, Putin has no more real Russian army behind him (I wonder if he ever really had a strong army). I think most russian generals in the frontline are afraid of being shot if they surrender or retreat.
    If the Wagner group really decides to move to Moscow, I doubt there is much to stop them from Russian military side
    Strange to read that Wagner has taken Rostov-on-Don. I was there a few years ago, we wanted to create a joint venture with a Russian company based in Rostov. Fortunately we did not finalise the deal, or I could be in a Russian jail right now for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
    Rostov may be along distance from Moscow, but it sends a very clear message to Putin if you ask me
    But will the West allow that Putin is removed as president?
    I see similarities with Saddam Hussain….US allowed him to stay in power for a long time, because they knew how he thought, and he brought some stability in the area. The US was afraid that Irak would implode if they removed Saddam, for there would be a war between the other warlords/tribes
    I think as long as there is no strong alternative in Russia for Putin, US will allow Putin to remain in Power. But maybe US is already moving someone in place. Who knows?

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      • Sadly, Wim, I am not as popular as even Kim Kardashian’s butt. But I am assured by Sally that I am much more attractive in dim light. She said any proof pictures out of focus helps. I have only 7 magnificent followers and even they have busy lives.
        My blog is a mere speck…..

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