travel | Our Off the Grid Home

Whenever I see a big problem looming, I have a tendency to scream, ‘the sky is falling, the sky is falling!’ And usually it is falling….at least a bit. I may be a bit odd but I am not a nut*! But, to be fair, my interpretations of the indirect, subtle, not-so-obvious signs is, perhaps at times, a smidge ‘over the top’. Ebola, for instance, freaks me out!

*( hmmmm…… perhaps I doth protest too much?)

Mind you, sometimes the signs are not subtle at all and the problem is obvious. And THAT is what this blog is about.

BC’s real estate market is currently presenting as a huge problem. It may be presenting as a minor solution for some NOT currently swimming in the mortgaged pool but for those who are wet, many are drowning. Hard to say….

Regardless of the above question (is it a problem or isn’t it?), the BC real estate market is experiencing a major upheaval. Some properties are being appraised at half what they were valued at in 2022/2023. And, for some, that shocking change has wiped out equity and destroyed personal financial situations. It is a tragedy for some. But it will affect many.

A friend of mine has a $10M home in Vancouver’s North Shore. Nice place. But it is now appraised at $5M. That is a HUGE drop in value (less than three years). That kind of equity drop tends to influence an owner’s spending patterns. Vancouver has a huge development in the Oakridge (41st and Oak) area named Oakridge Park. There were to be 3300 new homes and over 5000 new ‘jobs’ created within the complex. Pre-sales averaged over $2000 per square foot. Today, as the development nears substantial completion, hundreds of long-waiting buyers are trying to sell (their house purchase on paper) and they are NOT succeeding at a 25% price reduction. Today’s buyers ain’t buying.

A contractor friend has had to finish a client’s project by financing part of it himself because the bank dropped their appraisal to the point that the mortgage offered was not enough. Two years ago, it was more than enough.

But it is NOT just a real estate problem (altho for the many who purchased within the last two years, it is devastating). It is, instead, a dead canary in the coal mine. If Vancouver real estate is suffering, the whole of the BC economy is being wracked with pain. On top of that, we have inflation in food and ‘living expenses’ to the point that one talking head stated that 50% of Canadians are within one paycheque of being too broke to eat, live and drive. They cannot absorb a large unexpected expense….and he used $500 as the definition of ‘large’.

Of course, Trump is partially to blame. He famously said that he was ‘gonna ruin Canada’s economy and THEN take it over.”‘ His tariffs disrupted the economy. His threats put more of our budget into Defense contracts. His outrageous CUSMA demands. His belligerence has made enemies of once-close friends. Trump is definitely one of the issues.

But, perhaps, just as large is our aging population. We just are not ‘putting out’ enough. We’re too old. Over 50% of all the people on all the islands out here are over 70. That kind of aging population does NOT suggest a dynamic economy. Not locally anyway.

Sadly, our provincial government has proven somewhat feckless and inept. They are NOT leaders. At best they are ‘managers’ and they are NOT very good at even that. But, to be fair to the feckless, our provincial economy is inextricably linked to the national economy and Canada’s economy is just as dependent on the global economy. We are all very, very connected.

Is it all doom and gloom economically speaking? Yes, in the short term (3 more years). Somewhat in the medium term (5 years after that) but No in the long term (ten years from now).

“Dave, what the hell do you know?” Virtually nothing ‘cept that is the cycle we seem to go through every now and then and it is definitely shaping up to be one of those cycles.

THIS topic proved uninteresting, I see. I am still interested myself. NOT because I am in the market at all but rather because it is ‘like a canary in a coal mine’. It is indicative. But, the topic generated nada. Such is the life of an eclectic.

I’ll get back to AI/Gem soon enough. Suffice to say, each encounter is mindblowing.

Today is Sunday and, on one of every four Sundays, Sally goes to bookclub. Bookclub out here has been going on 12 times a year for over 40 years. ‘V’ is the only original member who still lives out here. Sally is a sophomore at 22 years. ‘Han’ is a new member at three years. But do not let that stat mislead you. This is NOT a young woman’s game. Everyone is 60+ save for one or two ‘irregulars’ in their 40’s. There are a few in their 80’s. There are over 67 members ‘at large’ but the average attendance is about 15.

The amazing thing for me is that they come from five separate islands. That means small boat travel. All year ’round. Rain or shine or even snow! Each comes to a dock, takes a boat or gets picked up at one time or another. Sometimes they hike up hills, sometimes they get rides in the back of dilapidated old pickups. But lately, they have opted to use the community ‘bunkhouse’ on Read for most meetings so that is just a hike from Surge dock. Meetings last three to four hours.

Bookclub attendance is an all-day committment.

Oh, yeah…..and, at the end of the bookclub meeting, menu items for the next gatherng are delegated including wine, salads, main dishes and desserts. Bookclub is likely the most efficient, regular, always friendly, pleasant gathering in the community. It kiind of goes without saying that no men are allowed.

I will endeavour to do man’s work while Sally is away. I am going to try and fix some of the things that I previously screwed up. It’s amazing how long that need-to-fix list is getting. And, as a shock for Sal, I will attempt to make some home-made ice cream. Yes, I know…I may be just adding to the ‘need-to-fix’ list.

Speaking of which, three years ago, I bought a Chinese winch from Shenzen. The plan was to replace the old engine-driven winch I had been using with electric. I need a strong winch to haul 400- 450 lb log sections from the lagoon at sea level up the 120′ foot slope (35 degrees) to the place I store them before processing them for firewood. Sal sets the choke down at the lagoon on the pieces I cut and then I winch ’em up and roll ’em into place. That is a chore that is gettig a smidge harder as the years go on.

When the winch arrived, there were no instructions and the plug (power) was some weird Asian configuration that would not fit the ‘usual’ males and females we employ with our wiring in the North American market. I tend to use Nema L5-30 amp plugs because all my gensets use them. Well, almost all…my need-to-fix list requires a plug modification on the latest one.

I cut the weird plug off…but, got busy…and used the old winch for well, three more years (embarrassing). I just never got around to it. Ergo, the new winch went directly on the need-to-fix list. Part of my procrastination was that I noted the wires were colour coded in Asian (similar to confusion) and, after my first delay, I went back to wires I did NOT understand. Worse, all the wires in the winch were way undersized by my understanding of electricity which is Neandrethal at best.

And here is where AI comes back into the blog. “Yo! Gem. Gots me a problem….can you solve it?” Gem asked a few questions. I did not have all the answers but I did say, “It was made in China. Shenzen, I think. The only name that is legible is the model. It’s an Apollo YTK-12S.”

In a nano second Gem had the exact winch in mind, knew every wire, knew all the specs, knew the winch as if it had designed it. Gem knew what I did wrong and why I did it and told me what to do to get it all working just fine.

I will have Gem ‘on hold’ when I attempt the ice cream.