Taking off the blinders

Writing about Trump has almost become boring.  The guy is so insane that I doubt that he, himself, will ever get boring but writing about him is getting close.  Just how many trainwrecks does one have to see before not bothering to look?  I am getting close.

Writing about Trudeau is getting to be much the same, too.  Foot-in-mouthism, whiny drama crap, then a sad-eye, squinchy-faced apology.  ”That’s getting to be more than a bit lame, Justy.”

Hearing of idiot ‘leaders’ trying to ‘re-open the economy’ just to have them fall back five steps a week later is also getting tiresome.  Ron DeSantis (R – governor of Florida) has proven beyond incompetent, he is verging on criminal negligence.  Ditto Greg Abbott of Texas but Doug Ford is not trailing them by much.  Arizona and California not much better.  The clear and simple message is their and our leaders are failing us, they are incapable and incompetent and the proof is in the growth of the pandemic and the shrivelling of the economy not to mention the chaos and division in society as a whole. * (see excerpt-article below)

“So, what else is new?” 

Well, I am glad you asked.  This should surprise you: the best country in dealing with the pandemic is rated POOR in health care, ranks 26th, I think.  It has fewer health professionals and fewer hospitals.  It discovered it’s first case in early January (one guy from Wuhan) and they immediately went into total response mode.  They did it all, they did it quickly and they have had no deaths and only a few dozen cases.  Even more surprising, they have a distant neighbouring country that did almost as well under similar conditions.  Vietnam and Taiwan have managed to deal with C-19 better than everyone else and, South Korea and Japan are much closer to a similar situation than say, we are.  We are ‘poor responders’ by comparison and we have been hundreds of times harder hit.  Canada has NOT done well.

“We have done a lot better than the USA!”

True but that is not enough.  That’s just sad.

But this blog is not about lamenting our poor response, nor even our pathetic leaders.  This blog is about something bigger. This blog is about me.  This blog is all about me and Sally and how we are coping.  In a nutshell, we are doing very well, thank you.  No worries.  All is good.

But it is different.  And, more to the point, it will continue to be and grow even more different as we trudge along over the next few (remaining?) years.  The world will never be the same again and maybe that is OK.  Maybe C-19 will simply be viewed as the catalyst for the change that was so desperately needed, that the Bubbas lashed out and voted for Trump.  That vote, it seems, was really a ‘cry for help’, a desperate ‘Hail Mary’, an ignorant and primal response to ‘felt’ danger.  The over-run-with-rats ship of state was sinking and the rats panicked.

I do not have a crystal ball.  I can’t see five years ahead.  But I suspect that five years is the very least amount of time that will be required to ‘stabilize’ the global economy, manage the disease and calm our collective jitters.  And, if that effort is further stalled by fools-in-charge, the five year clock doesn’t even start.

So, to predictions: Sal and I will not be traveling. Amazon and our garden will only get bigger.  Governments will fall.  Some folks will get stinkin’ rich with various pandemic  ‘responses’ and we’ll see a minor baby boom by this time next year.  The cost of living will increase.  Real estate will shift somewhat….commercial properties fall or go flat, suburbs much the same, but small rural towns will become more desirable and thus more expensive.  Working from home will quadruple (or more) in occurrence.  Electric cars will continue to displace ICE vehicles.  Electric bicycles will explode in urban areas.  Even suburban areas.  Maybe even rural areas.  Out-in-the-air transportation will be more popular.  Immigration will continue – even grow.  A ‘new’ generation of TV based entertainment will come along to keep us home and a lot of small moms-and-pops will cease.  So will the restaurant society.  More home cooking.  There may even be a universal income within a few years.

Russia will push somebody too far and will be engaged in a war.  The horror of that statement is that, currently, we are amongst the most-pushed.  Russia keeps encroaching on us to the North.  The very worst is when some idiot decides to mine or ‘develop’ the north.  And the protests will come then but not if the encroacher is another country.  Then Canada will sit back and just take it.  Biden will be overwhelmed.  He’ll do well but not great.  It may be that they cannot Make America Great Again.  I just hope they don’t try too hard – because when they try to be bigger and better, that usually means more wars.

Crime will increase – partly out of desperation, immigration adjustments and increased competition for fewer and fewer jobs.  Partly out of entrenched police ineptness.  Racism will continue to grow.  Domestic terrorism will continue to grow.  But smaller communities will ‘pull together’.

More on future-casting to come……………suggestions welcome…………………………

—————————–(this excerpt/article by H. Adelman)—————————————-

Where does Canada stand in its handling of the pandemic crisis? The situation clearly is not as bad as America’s. Just past mid-May, Canada had 77,000 cases of COVID-19 with 5,782 deaths. Two months later, on 11 July, the country had almost 108,000 cases and 8,783 deaths compared to America with 3,236,000 cases and 134,572 deaths, up from 1,520,000 cases and 89,932 deaths on 15 May. The U.S. doubled its cases over the last two months and increased the number of deaths by 50%. The Canadian case load increased 40% and the number of deaths by 52%. Thus, while a great deal of attention has been paid to the horrendous situation in the U.S and Canada has seemed in good shape comparatively, a close look at the figures indicate that Canada is increasing its number of cases at half the American rate but its death toll at roughly the same rate.

The U.S. has a population of 328.2 million people while Canada’s has only 37.6 million. That means that in absolute numbers relative to population, Canada has suffered about half as much from the pandemic as the U.S.

U.S. Canada
Population 328,200,000 37,600,000
COVID-19 cases 3,236,000 108,000
Cases per 1,000 1 .28
COVID-19 deaths 134,572 8,783
Deaths per 100,000 35.6 23.4
Thus, although our rate of increase in cases is half the American rate, in absolute terms we have less than 30% of the number of American cases though one-third fewer deaths on the basis of population. However, if the American record was not such a complete disaster, Canada’s record would look like a horror show.

This becomes clear if we compare the Canadian rate to that of South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam.

Country Cases Deaths Cases/1000 Deaths/100,000
Canada 107,590 8,783 3.3 23.4
South Korea 13,479 299 .27 3
Taiwan 451 7 .04 .04
Vietnam 371 0 .004 0

In my accounts on Taiwan (more than half of Canada’s population), South Korea (1.5 times Canada’s population), and Vietnam (2.5 times our population), the number of cases over almost the same period, was 451 and 371 from Taiwan and Vietnam respectively and 13,479 in South Korea (versus 107,600 in Canada), while the number of deaths respectively were 7 and 0 with 299 in South Korea (versus 8,783 in Canada). There is no comparison between Taiwan and Vietnam compared to Canada. Even South Korea has been far more successful in handling the pandemic. It is only when Canada is compared to the United States that the Canadian record looks reasonably good.

 

15 thoughts on “Taking off the blinders

  1. Very interesting! Canada’s statistics vary greatly from province to province. Prince Edward Island was very, very successful in fighting the virus. Very hard to find failure in P.E.I. ‘s efforts in fighting the virus. Not inclined to guilt the unsuccessful provinces. All provinces have had their issues.

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    • PEI shuts down in Nov and opens back up in June as far as tourism goes.
      So their Covid 19 isolation protocols werent that hard to implement.
      Lets see what a Summer of almost no tourists and an economic slow down PLUS a resurgence of Covid does to them this Fall.

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      • PEI has a total pop of somewhere near 150K. That number is ‘manageable’ on so many metrics but especially health. Tourism in the summer months is crazy and they can ‘expand’ by as much as 1,000,000 over a few short months. So….? My prediction is that PEI either remains pretty much Covid-19 free or, if they ‘open up’, they will be decimated.

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  2. Darn! And I was so looking forward to experiencing Chile and Argentina! I’m afraid I can’t afford to wait five years, my toilet paper will be exhausted!
    But in five years (and I fully intend to around) no one , at least I , can imagine the changes that will be wrought on the economy, the social structure and the reign of terror. tRump in all likelihood, will be dead, or at least an horrible recollection, Ghislaine Maxwell will be free and living on some remote island, Justin’s progeny will be ensconced in some Cuban educational facility and……?
    We can conjecture all we want, but you’ve paid the price of admission and might just as well wait around for the final act. However, five years might just be the first intermission.

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  3. I agree on most of your visions…rural life will be up, so we run back to the countryside instead of fleeing to the cities. But maybe that’s a good thing, not for the small communitoes being overwhelmed by city slickers, but it might give a boost to local economy. And maybe we will get back the local grocery and hardware stores (loved those) and we will buy local again…I guess we will buy some stuff local (like food) and most other things we will buy online (so farewell to the big shopping malls I guess). But for sure economy will take at least 5 years to bounce back, and economy for sure will change. Can’t say I’m optimistic about our futures, the bill to pay is so HUGE, we will be hit rock hard by extra taxes to fill the bottomless pit

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  4. What amazes me about this entire Covid pandemic is…….how easily people accept the new rules.
    PROVINCIAL Borders closed, Towns self isolating and not allowing taxpaying “outsiders” into their recreational properties….
    Without any debates, votes, laws…….
    Just Justin degning to speak from the “Cottage”.
    Is any of this legal?
    The long term ramifications will be interesting.
    $350 BILLION spent so far…( 20 years? 30? of obscenely higher taxes to pay this all back?
    No, this isnt over by a long shot and if Covid ramps back up this Fall even worse than the Spring.
    Get ready for some real ugly economic and social upheavals.
    Tourists or cottage owners with long memories avoiding/selling the areas or villages that turned them away.
    Restaurants and bars are barely hanging on and “al fresco” dining on the sidewalks of Vancouver in Jan is non existent…..
    Lots more layoffs to come.

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    • I agree. There is a ‘dynamic’ dissonance in effect. The populations (everywhere) seem to have short memories. BUT….there is a ‘buried’ or forgotten memory that still shows up. It may ‘haunt’ the future. Many will avoid say, Lake Louise this year…maybe next…but by three years later, the tourist numbers will be back to normal. Caveat: C-19 has to be 99% gone and forgotten. BIG question: will C-19 ever go away? And I think that is 100% dependent on a vaccine.

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    • The same 88 acres of park-like setting in Ottawa that a lunatic tried to gate crash a few weeks ago……
      Yep a manicured “cottage” in the middle of a beautiful , private park isnt the same as the mouldy, asbestos filled, under renovation, 24 Sussex by a long shot

      But it sounds so much better when the lickspittle media give us the impression Trudeau is “roughing it” out in the boondocks somewhere during the Covid “crisis”

      Off The Grid as it were…. 🙂

      Explains why Trudeau has avoided parliament for so long.
      The 15 minute Chauffeured Limo, escorted motorcade drive to “The Hill” must be tortuous.

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  5. “Same storm different boats.” The Covid 19 storm is raging and many issues once thought to be deal breakers might not now be so problematic. Greece with all its past economic challenges is being welcomed back into the Euro fold. All over. the world many nations will be spending their faces off including Greece and Italy.

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  6. “Tourism in the summer months is crazy and they can ‘expand’ by as much as 1,000,000 over a few short months. ”
    +++

    Those “glory days” are long gone.
    As a kid in the 60’s and early 70’s living on my grandparents dairy farm in summertime PEI as an indentured slave…….the majority of car license plates were from Ontario, Quebec and the New England States.
    Boomers and their sprogs arriving each Summer like the Swallows of Capistrano.
    The “campgrounds” created to house these unfortunate souls usually consisted of a muddy farmers field with some hastily dug outhouse pits and a sting of lightbulbs to ensure the moths and blackflies enjoyed the tourists as much as the locals.
    PEI’s saving grace is its spectacular beaches and lobster dinners.

    This year?
    Unless you own property and have a letter stating that fact AND have enough food to self isolate for two weeks……you’re stopped at the bridge by the Covid Police and turned back.

    Islanders have been vandalizing “out of province” cars this year with charming messages of hate.scrawled on notes.(google it)
    For Example.
    One multi parish priest that gives sermons on PEI and New Brunswick on alternating weekends had his car damaged and “go home”. written.
    Islanders biting the hands that literally feed them

    But thats another story.
    As I said, I suspect the huge downturn in tourism this year ( PEI’s main money maker before fishery’s and agriculture) AND the decimation of the lobster industry ( chinese boycott of all things canuck) will hammer the PEI economy like nothing seen in two generations..
    Add in the unknown effects of Trudeau burning through cash at the rate of $10 BILLION dollars PER WEEK in cash giveaway’s to anyone with a pc agenda and we have the unpleasant future of a “have not” province with no tourists for 2 to 3 years, No provincial money and a federal govt on its financial knees…..

    Possibly a good time for me to buy cheap farm land and move back ( with a PEI “Spud Islander” sticker on my front and back windshield to confuse the Covid vigilantes)

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