Real estate prices fluctuate, of course, all around the province but the perceived value of OTG properties seems to fluctuate the most. Most people new-to-the-dream do not understand that and, to be fair, the reasons for such disparities are generally vague and somewhat complicated all at the same time. It is hard for anyone to make sense of OTG real estate prices.

I am gonna take a run at it…….

……well, a second run at it. The first effort to get a handle on it was expanded on in my second book, “Choosing” (albeit not in great detail) and in a passing kind of way now and then in a few blogs.

I was recently prompted to think more about OTG real estate prices for several reasons: one; a British student doing research found my name and asked about it. Two; a few more readers have expressed interest in moving OTG and three; I have a sense that the usual OTG market around me is also changing even more so lately……so here goes.

1. That mainstream urban and suburban markets continue to rise or at least remain high transfers to all real estate everywhere in a generally increasing price kind of way.
2. That so many people over the next ten years will be leaving the workforce (Baby Boomers retiring) and many will jettison their high-value urban home for retirement capital is also a factor. But they still need a place to live. When you make a ‘retirement/lifestyle change’, many tend to leave the city for the country.
3. Construction costs are over-the-top everywhere and have more than tripled – so people look for cheaper land and that also means ‘heading out’. Mind you, construction costs OTG were and still are even DOUBLE that!
4. The meme that the world is going to hell in a handbasket is an increasingly common one. There is a general sense of insecurity and fear of maybe even civil disruption that also adds to the desire to “Get out!” There are a lot of forces that suggest all real estate rural and OTG will increase in demand.

A. On the other hand, current inflationary forces seem to hit rural and OTG properties a smidge harder. Distance means fuel and my $1600 fuel-tank-fill (gensets, chainsaw, boats) is now $2500. That’s a significant deterrent.

B. We also employ more product delivery than we used to (because of Amazon, age, time, convenience, etc) and so a loaf of bread has a 15% percent surcharge as does everything else.

C. The OTG burden of NOT having bank-financed mortgages commonly available is also a deterrent as more cash is required for a purchase. Financial services do not want the risk of an OTG property – the market is too small and often too volatile – they do not want to foreclose on a distant property. Plus most OTG properties are next to impossible to insure (no roads, no fire protection, etc). Those forces and many more act as a limit on rural real estate prices.

Put more simply, there are now new forces even stronger than before driving people out and away from living rural or OTG. Living poor now costs a lot of money. Societies around the world have experienced a strong urbanization influence since the Industrial Revolution and that trend has not stopped. And the more people become ‘civilized’ the less capable they are of living away from systems of convenience. A large family in the 1930’s lived simply, independently but not very well on the prairies or on farms. They did not get fat. They did not drive cars with AC or heated seats. Today, few people have the skills, the will, the family size or the attitude to live that way. Rural has lost a lot of appeal for a lot of people.

But so now is urban life seen as becoming more unpleasant. The retirees are fed up with the cost and the stress. Immigrants can’t afford it. Crime, violence, restrictions and rules have replaced the attraction of the gene pool, theatres and Starbucks. A lot of city people now want out. And there are now fewer people to actually want in because the Boomers did not make a lot of babies! Populations are shrinking.

So how does all that affect real estate prices OTG? I cannot make an accurate and related correlation of those influences and end up with even a rough determination. Being smart, informed and analytical is not my thing…I just see the influences and I shared them with the student researcher.

And I know that there are many, many more factors to consider. Honestly, I could list many more pulls and pushes and quadruple the length of this blog.

But here’s one that is counter-intuitive – there is a lot of land rural and OTG available but there is not a lot of exceptional and desirable land for sale….at least not that anyone can find without being in the area. For instance: if you are OTG and intend to utilize solar, you need to have a south-facing lot. You also need to be sure of your ground water. You need to consider the extraordinary cost of access. That list just goes on and on. And the answers to the list are not found unless you are physically on the ground.

Few realtors want to work hard at their job and they are very disinclined to spend a lot of time and money trying for a commission on a lower priced, very distant piece of land. The interested buyer is hard pressed to find a realtor interested in OTG. That synergy is just not available.

Here’s another one: the potential buyer is also somewhat spoiled or limited in their own willingness. They do not want to, or maybe can’t afford to, go looking for a needle in a haystack. Looking is a major task. It’s expensive and very time-consuming. They expect service and there simply isn’t very much of it for rural or OTG property.

When you think about it, it is a HUGE challenge to find a rural or OTG piece of paradise that a retiree can handle and it is also a rare retiree who has the skills, energy and the knowledge to even make the effort.

That may sound a bit egotistical on my part and I apologize if it does…but I was an exception. We bought the land we are on when I was 26. It was all the rage to go ‘back to the land’ in the 70’s. So, we went. But we didn’t stay. We remained urban for the next 30 years and then we went to the island. And we lucked out. Without knowing anything, we had found the right place. Relying on luck is a not a path I recommend.

Anyway…just a rumination, a reflection, a bunch of thoughts prompted by a British student asking a question….

Left paradise on February 17th. Destination: Sal’s mom’s. Metchosin (just outside Victoria). Purpose: help her move from her 2000 sq ft home-of-forty-years into an assisted care facility. She’s 95 in a few weeks. But she is entirely ‘with it’ and it was her choice. So far, so good.

A quick assessment suggested that five days should do the trick. A lot of selecting, some packing, some storage, some cleaning, some paperwork…ready, set, go!

But a minor health issue with good ol’ mom stopped our immediate progress. So we ‘putzed’ around doing some small stuff, some big stuff, removing junk, fixing minor building flaws…etc. Caring for mom. And a few days went by……like the Chinese water torture…..

By day five things were looking up. Even better, mom was up. We all went for a ‘facility’ reconnoitre and ‘sussed the place out’. It was not her first time there but it was her first day in a while and the visit set her back some……moving day postponed for another few days.

So, we continued with the putzing and fixing, cleaning, packing, selecting and the other gazillion distractions from the main move. But day six saw the movers taking the big items, a few bits of furniture, some packed boxes and the various belongings needed to make a shipping container (her apartment) a home. And the snow started to fall as did the temperature. It was getting bloody cold for Victoria.

It was even colder back in paradise. Our neighbours reported snow and below freezing temps for days. “The hill is a sheet of ice. People can’t get out. People can’t even walk up or down it!”

That bad news had a tarnished silver lining……we had a home to stay in with all the mod cons and our own home would have required us to use totes for water and burn copious amounts of wood. Still, by day twelve the original chore was still not complete. There was also mom needing some new-home adjustment time…..

All in all, it took sixteen days to move Sal’s mom into a small, 350 sq ft cell and make it suitable. That included installation of hooks, rearranging furniture, decorating and introductions to the ‘processes’ and ‘expected behaviours’ of living with others. It truly was an adjustment…..for me, especially. Mom was good. I was half traumatized every time we went there (every day).

The above explains the dearth of blog posts these past couple of weeks but, wait! There’s more! The internet and phone were cut off on our fifth day there. But that’s OK. We’re not addicted. Well, hooked, perhaps, but not addicted in an extreme way…mostly…..(I thought I’d go mad). In a way, it was a good thing that there was so much to do because there were no outlets for other interests.

Sal coped by walking the dogs. The three of them would traipse the woods around her mom’s old house most of the time but every day included a short drive to a nearby beach and the three of them would regain their sanity there before coming back. I stayed home and slowly descended into madness.

My ‘fun-with-dogs’ was limited to being the ‘guy with two humongous black and curly dogs’ who went to visit Sal’s mom and went through the main lobby to get to the elevator. Those dogs created an energy not common in an assisted care home and we always attracted a crowd. It was always fun.

We cooked at the old home but half the time did take-out. Firstly, we were always busy and secondly, we were trying to reduce the amount of foodstuffs that would be chucked when it was all over. Our meals were NOT great. Restaurant food sucks now (for us). Single exception: Sabhai Thai in Langford. They were good.

Our return day was, as usual, hectic and stressful. The highway had a multi-car accident just as the snow was at its thickest. We sat on the Malahat waiting for emergency vehicles. Then, after Nanaimo, it started snowing again. Heavy. All that and a vehicle so laden that we bottomed out on every medium bump, the stories of the frozen hill and the prospect of a frozen home to get to tended to dampen out enthusiasm but not our determination.

As it turned out, the snow let up and, by Courtenay, the sun was peeking out. We caught the no-longer reliable ferry on time (whew) and charged up the neighbouring island through the snow on the logging road with full-on sunshine overhead. The hill was not so bad….I crawled down and got to the halfway lot and stopped there.

A beautiful, lovely, home-welcoming boat ride and a couple of hours later and we were in the house. Well, the engine on the boat started to conk out halfway home but we responded appropriately, effected repairs and made it home. Temperature outside was 4C. Temperature inside the house was also 4C. Four hours of robust wood heat and we were at about 16C and that would be our high that night.

The best part? I checked our batteries and they were full to the brim! Sixteen days of cold and a few minor draws (small ghost loads) and they had just soaked up the sun (when it shone) and charged up.

Happiness is a fully charged battery bank.

Sal’s mom is moving into an assisted care home. I think the name is SIxfloorsofhell…..(but it’s spelled differently, of course). Think: incarceration that you pay dearly for.

Still, it is well run and pleasant as prisons go. The matron-at-arms is quite formidable (in an Ernest Borgnine/Brian Dennehy kinda way) and her militant minions are her all-too willing gestapo. No one gets into the building without first registering at a separate and secured vestibule, being interrogated as to their intentions, being ID’d with the obligatory photo ID and……… it also has to match your valid Covid proof-card. Then they buzz you in. I half expected the matron to scream, “Get on the ground! Get on the ground NOW!!!

I have been there five times over the move this week and each time is like visiting a serial killer at Rikers.

I read the rule book (almost as lengthy as War and Peace) and noted that pets were allowed to visit. I was gonna test that……

Today, I brought Gus and Daisy (all 200 pounds of big, black curly dog) in. The moment they arrived, the staff melted. Shrieks, laughter and aaahs and ooohs filled the air. Gus and Daisy licked everyone and jammed their noses into places unjammed for decades. More shrieks. Old people gathered all presumably wanting to be sniffed and jammed, too. The entry foyer must have had twelve people all ‘loving the dogs’. It was semi-erotic, canine bedlam for a bit.

Ironically, the residents are allowed to have dogs live in and several do. I’ve seen them. Barely. They are all tiny (rules require 5kgs or less) and could fit almost entirely in Gus’s mouth. Gus and Daisy were dogs of a bygone era for these folks. The little dogs coming and going are either ignored or just not seen (no one has great eyesight or hearing). But it is impossible not to see Gus and Daisy.

Then I introduced G&D to the elevator. That went well but only because I am stronger. Ten more pounds on each of them and/or ten more years on me and that will no longer be true. A brief wrestling match later, we were going up to the fifth floor and they had adjusted to the physical sensations of being trapped in a box but moving upwards. And then they were ushered into the 350 sft ‘residence’ of which they and their tails occupied at least 25% of the walkable area. Gus and Daisy are adjusting pretty well to the pastel prison.

I am not. I feel claustrophobic. I feel trapped, regulated, supervised and managed, tolerated and endured. And I am just talking about being here in Victoria with Sally!!

Sal has a lot on her plate helping her mom, managing the move, being a good daughter and dog owner all in a place that is NOT her own castle and, when that happens, Tinkerbelle morphs into Atilla-the-honey. Still sweet, freakishly focused.

That’s OK. The dogs get handled. Mom gets handled and all the details of a life move get handled. Being tolerated and endured speaks volumes to the bond of our marriage. And the supervision and management part really only shows up as me lifting and carrying and doing dishes – just like home!

This modern facility makes it much, much worse for me, tho. I could do it. I could live here. I could even rent a 5kg dog by the week. But I would check in on a Monday and it would be the last Monday I would ever see. Either the matron tasers me, the cops shoot me or I do a swan dive off the fifth floor. This no way to live.

“Tell us more about living OTG!”

Well, OK. But I kinda ‘did’ that already….first with the pre-Russian website-theft blog series, then with book #1 and then, in case you missed it, with book #2. And I even do OTG in the post-Russian-theft blog era now and again.

Still, OTG seems to have a bit more cachet than does my political blogs or my Doomsday series. Sal (as a topic) is always a big hit. Dogs are good but too easily overdone…..and my time-life on the wrong side of the tracks also piques a bit of interest sometimes amongst a few…..but the request was for more OTG.

So, I’ll get there but maybe in a roundabout way….

We are currently in Victoria helping Sal’s mom move into an assisted living facility. She was dead-set against it until a few months ago and now impatiently wants the move. “Fed up cookin’ for myself!” And so into the facility she goes. And, of course, her moving there prompts me to think about us and whether we will ever follow in her footsteps.

Sal and I have been talking. NOT doing very well, so far…….she’s a bit resistant….

“Not in a million years. I hate it here (Victoria) and I hate everything about it – shopping, traffic, incarcerating my mother, trying to keep two dogs restrained and not frustrated. I just hate it! Never coming back! Not to any town. Not ever! Right?………Right?…..RIGHT!!???”

“Sal! Calm down. I am on your side. But ya gotta think about it…ya gotta at least have a plan B. Right? Right?”

“Fine! What’s our plan B?”

“I dunno. We start with the talking and thinking part…then we get to the planning part….”

“I’ve thought about it. I do NOT want a plan B! I wanna drop dead on the beach at our place!”

“OK. Good. That’s our plan B. I get that (presumably I am dead-on-the-beach first so that is her Plan A). But, just for the fun of it, let’s think about what happens if you drop on the beach like you planned but don’t die? But your hips and a leg are smashed up. Should I just leave ya there to float in and out with the tide til yer good-and-dead and really, really wet? Or, if I abandon plan B and take you in and you get patched up but then you need a wheelchair……should I just roll ya back to the beach so ya can try again?”

“OK, fine! What’s a better plan B?”

“Well, we could move to Thailand and have beautiful Thai women take care of us? You know….massages, salad rolls, curry and Pad Thai?”

“No!”

“OK, we could move to the Philippines and have beautiful Filipinas take care of us? You know……..massages, adobo, crispy pata….maybe a little karaoke?”

“I do not like where this going….?

“Well, we could just stay here, fix up the boathouse, extend another room, add some amenities and find a beautiful woman who needs a place to live in exchange for some cleaning, housekeeping and maybe a few massages…?”

“OK! Now you’re talkin’!”

Planning our departure (in whatever way it comes) is clearly a work in progress, the first step of which was taken today. Kinda. I could probably pull that joke-plan off if I found a woman who also liked quilting but I fear that then I would be the one in the boathouse….or left rolling in the tide….

…….we have more talkin’ to do…

I write about OTG, boats, politics, engine repairs, firewood, my wife, economics, aging….kind of an eclectic grab-bag of my daily-life thoughts. I spare you dinner recipes but they occupy more than just a bit of my mind-space, too. And, of course, now and then, I mention the dogs (almost 14 months old and still growing!). This all about someone else!

In a sec….first me, of course.…..There is no denying that I have a bit of a doomsday streak running through a lot of what I write. The End of Days kinda thing. “Git yerself a cabin in the woods if ya wanna survive the Zombie Apocalypse!” “Get out. Get OUT NOW!!!” “Climate Change is coming!” “It’s here!!!!”

I can get a little hysterical.

I’ve been trying to tone it down a bit. “The sky is falling” gets a bit lame after awhile…..altho, the sky is dropping large balloons lately…jus’ sayin’…..

I have also been up front about all that – my dramatic warnings stem from a lack of good scientific data and information, media manipulation and a healthy but unchecked imagination. I tend to believe some of the ‘others’ when they warn us and ignore the ‘stupid others’ that say otherwise – but I do not know who is who. Not really. And I am not a researcher. I mostly go on feelings, inferential scanning (unconscious observation) and whatever madness comes with getting older. I am not really much of a bona fide source of anything except, perhaps, that I acted on my feelings. But so did Evel Knievel (and his son). Feelings are not always enough.

I mention all this because I just discovered an even more obnoxious, more arrogant, prognosticator than myself and he claims to actually KNOW something. His name is Peter Ziehan and he is a Geopolitical Futurist. He is a bit hard to listen to because he likes himself a bit too much. Even worse, he speaks faster than my cerebral absorption rate. I can barely keep up. If he says something I question (or do not hear quite right) he has already said three other things before I can scramble back aboard the Ziehan train. I really should not be too critical of his style, tho. I kinda like the guy in a ‘fellow-boorish‘ kinda way.

But having ‘style’ does not mean he is wrong. And I think there is an element of logic and accuracy to what he is saying. He is saying that the last 35 years have been mankind’s most enriching, most peaceful, most cooperative and most productive years in world history.

And they are now over.

And that Golden era was because of a few key things: The US kept international shipping lanes, safe. Globalization allowed countries, with only one or two things to offer for trade, to get other products and so further develop themselves. It was that new global trading synergy that created new markets and floated all boats. Plus we (mostly First World (FW) but including 2nd and eventually third world countries, too) had the labour and a system to make good use of it – i.e. Capitalism and the baby boomers.

He is big on Geography, too. Geography is and was a destiny definer throughout history. Still a huge factor for him. And, as an aside, he thinks the USA (the NAFTA zone, actually) enjoys the best geography in the world. It is the only large geographical entity that can run wholly independent of other countries. (There are a few other small ones that have the ‘right stuff’ like New Zealand and France.) Most countries NEED to still trade with FW foreign devils so as to better develop their burgeoning and infant societies. North America can continue on with just domestic devils.

He also notes that globalization is in retreat. The USA is backing away from being the world’s policeman. Nation states (autocrats) are re-asserting isolation/independence to their own and everyone’s detriment. He claims China is almost done, primarily due to population imbalance, Covid, poor soil, autocracy and trade dependence. He claims Russia is done. The Middle East is unsustainable without free trade — they don’t grow food! You need good geography, properly-balanced demographics, robust and varied agriculture and across-the-board industry – only the US has all that in abundance.

Covid exacerbated all that was going to become a disaster anyway as nations fade into oblivion caused by their aging populations and/or bad management. The Russia Ukraine war and climate change is adding to the deglobalization trend. We are all, it seems, downsizing — some quicker and more catastrophically than others.

But the biggest negative influence on the status quo is the aging of the First world. Consumption is falling. Workers are retiring. Capital is constricted. There are not enough young people to replace the retirees and the immigrants who are younger are not as skilled or integrated. Growth has been ruled out. Do not even hold your breath for the status quo.

We are doomed!

Well……..we are doomed to ‘transition’, anyway. Change is underway. BIG CHANGE is underway. HUGE CHANGE IS UNDERWAY. Maybe it will turn out to be a blessing?

In fact, Ziehan says this month is a bit of a reveal. It seems February 2023 is when the Baby Boomers wave of retirement really peaks. And transition time is for a long period, probably…well….it is hard to say…..because we do NOT know what we are transitioning to……but he figures it will take a two or three generations at least to sort out the new ‘world order’. It won’t be an easy transition and he has stated that those fifty years or so will experience great hardship and many countries and populations will go without what we have all come to expect. Life will get harder. Food choices reduced. Food volumes reduced. Trade and wealth around the world will drop. Much of the world will regress, devolve……

Ziehan makes me look like Mr. Sunshine.

So…let the sun shine in….he has not factored in robots, artificial intelligence, ingenuity or even technology — not really. He has not opined that Gaia might appreciate a rest and recuperation period as populations fall and abuse lessens. He has not considered the rise of the few countries that have young populations (sub-Saharan and South America) or those youngish, such as India and some SE Asian countries. There should be a lot less war (again, fewer young people). Nor has he considered the one aspect of our species that has served us the best – adaptability.

Regardless…Ziehan has entered the conversation with a new perspective…..something to think about.

Observation #1. After turning 70, just for fun, try NOT reflecting on getting old. Can’t be done. Firstly, getting old makes itself known all the time – once you hit 70. 70 is a big year. You just naturally reflect on getting old rather than trying to deflect it.

But, I have to admit, getting old is, well for me, getting kinda old. I am bored of it. Been at it for five years now. And others my age aren’t helping much. It seems to take nothing before a group of best-before-dated oldies start to discuss all their ailments and pains. By the time the conversation gets going several have nodded off and I just wander away. Old age is just NOT that interesting.

Observation #2. Oldies also talk of ‘popping off’ or ‘buying the farm’ or ‘leaving this mortal coil’ a lot. Which, I suppose, is mentally healthy but, upon (that annoying habit of) reflecting, must have another purpose…I think… Some really old geezers I know always want to discuss their ‘going away’ as if planning and discussing are their way of accepting it….? Or maybe they just want a party?

At first, I used to just say to them, “Oh, Hell, man, sure you are old and decrepit but you’ve been old and decrepit a long time. Since your early thirties, actually. I am sure you are still just half way along some old, boring and dusty road. Discussions of your imminent termination are premature. Hell, you can still buy green bananas, take out a mortgage, date some young thing and pick out baby names. Buck up!”

But that wasn’t always quite the right thing to say – especially if they were in hospice or otherwise utilizing more tubes than just a CPAP machine. I was not as sensitive to the topic in the past, perhaps, as I should have been (too late now to fix some of those discussions I am afraid). I must confess to empathizing more these days even if I am a bit late.

Observation #3. God. God comes up now where, before, God was just some silly church-invented concept that smart people rejected as a crutch for sheeple believing in fairy tales. Today? Not so much. The biggest converts in my social circle are my Jewish friends. They were all so very hip and intellectual when young. They were non-Jews, modern Jews, Reform Jews, Atheists and newly practicing Buddhists who saw the light in yoga. Now, well, Synagogue is on the weekly schedule. So is Shabbat dinner, and a lot of old rituals have gained a place for them between doctors appointments.

That is also kinda true for my Asian friends who, for reasons unexplained are now attending Protestant churches. When asked why, the typical response is, “Well, you never know. Best to spread your bets.”

The white guys haven’t changed much. Still heathens, pagans and barbarians although there is the occasional reference to the Great Spirit or the Spirit Bear Rainforest or some kind of gobbledygook. Gaia comes up now and then amongst the few ex-hippies.

My indigenous friends don’t talk at all about it but they do kinda listen and roll their eyes and walk away looking for a drum to beat or something.

Me? Oh, I have been a believer in something unifying for a long time and so there’s nothing too new for me on that score. Gene Roddenberry (Star Trek) envisioned a great spiritual pool into which your eternal essence (soul) was eventually poured to mingle amongst the trillions of others and I like that image.

Observation #4. I am getting ripped off a lot. No one is really cheating me directly. The fault lies with me. I have been eligible for senior’s discounts for twenty years in some cases. Definitely for the last ten years. I just never ask. I just don’t think about it. It’s irritating…in the same way NOT winning the lottery is irritating. I never buy a ticket but, damn…..

Observation #5. Sleep. Blessed, elusive, erratic, undependable, geriatric sleep. What an irritant disrupted sleep is! If I sleep well, things get done, Sal gets kissed, the dogs get walked and I help out with dinner. No sleep? Everyone pays a price. Sadly, good sleep is getting more and more infrequent. I guess the great spirit pool expects me to catch up when I have officially left the building and gotten into the great public pool.

Observation #6. Movies. Good ol’ hero type, wise-cracking, shoot-em-ups are getting too real and gritty now. Andaa sappy Morgan Freeman playing God bugs me. The producers have moved away from space movies, which I still really like, and rom-coms are just plain stupid now. I guess what I am saying is that age has made me so much more picky now and that I am not even happy with Netflix. That’s annoying because Netflix was my retirement plan.

Observation# 7. Travel. I still have the bug but it is an ant now. I am easily crushed by airports, security, epidemics and Tourista. I have kinda gone soft. I’ll still chicken-bus but only if they have air-conditioning and the driver doesn’t play local salsa loudly on a tinny portable player. Some chicken buses still do that. I tend to pay the extra pesos for the quiet ones now. I know that I have a few trips left in me and I think logic suggests the sooner the better but, damn!, y’all know what’s going on out there!!?? If I can wait for an air conditioned bus, I can wait for the epidemic, revolution, cartel shoot-out, war and general corruption to subside a bit, can’t I?

Observation #8. They were wrong about wisdom. I am older. But I am not wiser. I used to know everything. Now I know nothing. The only thing I know for sure is that I am where I want to be with the one I want to be with and we eat and drink well together.

I may have to work on my Netflix plan.

(I am 75 and, in all those years, there has been no story bigger than Climate Change, the Ukraine/Russian War, the Trump years and, of course, Covid. History includes some whoppers but none in my lifetime. There have been a few of almost equal import but they -Vietnam, birth control pill, Polio vaccine, hippies, computers – came at us one at a time. Maybe the rise of China is the biggest of all but so far it is not the baddest. Today we have the unprecedented assault of four major negative influences in our life and they are all very, very bad. So, the following blog verges on a rant and then becomes one in all it’s full-blown glory)

Russia is swirling the drain. Their one-year war with Ukraine has cost them trillions ($9T) of dollars and well over 100,000 dead. The official number is 135,000. Those guys are defining a new slang term: dumpster fire-diving. As of today, Russia has lost 294 planes, 284 helicopters, 461 missile launchers, 18 ships and boats, 3245 tanks and the equivalent of all that again in heavy trucks, troop carriers, drones, artillery and the like. This is a country with a GDP that is not even quite the equal of Canada’s!……about $1.7T.

And we do not even HAVE 100,000 soldiers in our entire armed forces! Put another way: with 3.5 times the population, Russia produces less than what Canada produces and it is currently spending their already strained and limited resources like a desperate gambler at a cheap casino. They have literally blown five times their normal GDP in one year and normal GDP is now out of the question.

None of the above even factors in all the sanctions, restrictions, assets frozen and punitive actions taken against them in a non-military way by Europe/Nato countries nor does it count the 700,000 ‘fighting-age’ men who fled the country to avoid conscription.

This war-with-their-cousins has gutted their economy, drained their military, emptied the coffers and has sent almost a million working men away (by way of wounding, death and desertion). They have even managed to make themselves more vulnerable than ever before by prompting several otherwise neutral countries to join NATO, their perceived arch enemy.

Guys! That is real world-changing news.

Had the US or NATO launched a purposeful, planned war with Russia, they could not have achieved more disruption and destruction in one year – if they could have done even half! Putin has basically, single-handedly proven to be history’s most inept leader in almost every way but domestic bullying of the citizenry (and, of course, he is a thief on a much higher scale than Marcos or Duvalier). Major bully, voracious thief, rotten citizen and a very, very poor leader.

(….rant approaching….) I never thought I would say it but Putin is worse for his country than any leader before him in history and part of that is simply because of him having the assets and the people to squander….and then squandering them all in record time.

Russia is commiting suicide.

Lest anyone think NATO and the USA is unaware of this ongoing self-destruct ‘putton’, be advised, this war was a gift to them they accepted without qualms or conscience. They know it is a death knell for Russia and they are helping Ukraine just enough to keep it going. In effect, a family dispute is taking a major threat to NATO out of the way. And the cost to NATO is minimal. A few tanks, a few missiles, a few adjustments for heating fuel……and a nation-killing war is being waged and won without anyone ‘cept the cousins getting hurt.

“Dave, we are being helpers and humanitarians to Ukraine! Aren’t we?”

Yes/no we are/aren’t. Yes, but not so much that we make it end. Not so much that we provide a definitive advantage to Ukraine. Not as much as we should for the sake of humanity. We are just helping Ukraine deplete and defeat Russia but not too quickly. Timing is everything. The longer the better. The pace of our intervention, the amount of our assistance and even the type of weapons we give is all strategic. And strategically minimalized. ‘We need to serve our needs first’ is the policy. Ukraine can be sacrificed and likely will be.

NATO’s strategy is NOT so much to assist Ukraine to win but rather to have Russia beaten to a pulp. If both Ukraine and Russia were left in a smoldering heap of dead amongst the rubble and ruin, NATO would consider it a complete victory. No guilt whatsoever. If Ukraine survives, all the better to assist them (with loans and contractors) in expanding into NATO. And this cold-blooded strategy appears to be working.

(….rant has arrived...) This war may go down in history as the most Machiavellian conflict since, well, Machiavelli. The Russian Ukraine War is BIG news (however, it is less and less reported on) – especially from the perspective of history-making. This is nation-killing writ large.

Covid is also that kind of BIG news (hardly being reported on at all these days). Climate Change is really, really big, too (but we just get the weather reports)……

Oh, and one more thing….the Chinese balloon-thing is a nothing-burger. Countries have been floating balloons over each other forever. It’s nothing. It’s not even nothing…it is a distraction. It is, in effect, a type of lie. It is a ‘talking point’ for idiots. A single satellite pass provides more in depth ‘spy’ information than does a dozen balloons floating for a week.

“Unh, Dave! Why would you even say that right now and what makes you an international intelligence expert?”

Firstly, no expertise is required. All this is common knowledge (ever since Gary Powers and the U2 mission) – it is just that it doesn’t seem that many know it. Secondly, it is truly a talking point distraction. It also – oddly – covers up a lot of good Biden-related USA news (inflation coming down, more employment than in the past 50 years, environmental progress, infrastructure investment, industry advancement, improved international relations, etc.). Why is that…….

(Ta da! And now for the weird part of the RANT!)

The media is seemingly doing it to us all (or NOT doing it) – by lying on purpose or by omission and distraction. ON PURPOSE! They are not reporting on Russia to the extent that we should know. They ARE reporting on China (not a thing). The current balloon hysteria is just another part of the great disinformation underway.

There is an intentional, perverted, misleading of the public on so many things large and trivial and yet, even when it is obvious and important (Ukraine kicking Russia’s butt and Biden making domestic and international progress) they still keep lying/distracting us and it all still seems to work……but working for what?

What I have no clue about is why.….why lie, obfuscate, mislead and distract? Why emphasize a nothingness balloon and NOT explain and analyze on a real issue – Russia? Why is Kim Kardashian’s butt a topic in the news? Or Tom Brady retiring? Or Beyonce’s dress? Why does everything seem to be a lie or a distortion or a distraction?

Even more vexing is why are some very important things left out? Could it possibly be as simple as just keeping the News Cycle churning? Is lying a ‘filler’ – the way to keep the News industry economically healthy?

My rant distilled into a sentence? Even doing a lot of reading and even adding in some critical thinking…..it is impossible to know the truth about much of anything anymore and….I think that is – somehow and for some reason – on purpose.

As of 2022, it is estimated that just over 3,000,000 ‘Mericans live in their vehicle full time (most are living alone). That’s almost 1% of the population. Most modern countries also have around 30% of the adult population living alone in conventional housing. If you add in the official estimate of urban homeless in the USA, it is at least another 600,000 (most are alone). And it seems these same estimators guess that approximately 250,000 people live off-the-grid lifestyles that are fixed on land (fewer of those people are alone). Based on the number of YouTubes and blogs, I think there are more OTG’ers than that……

That’s a lot of lonely people.

Canada has almost 300 official communities (100+ in the north) that are ‘off-the-grid’, off-the-conventional-grid, anyway. Approximately 200,000 people live in-community like that. They might have a community generator, community well and have seasonal road access but, for the most part, they are NOT plugged into national, provincial or even regional district ‘grids’. Nor are they plugged into the larger communities. They are small groups of alone people.

But, then again, so many OTG’ers I am aware of are not living in-community at all. They live remote, maybe in a small clutch near others but, for all comparable intent, they are totally independent and very much alone. I cannot guess…but I will…say another 50,000 for Canada?

I mean…for example, those (in our area) are not in-community in any measurable/conventional way with shared roads, stores, water or power (but we do have a two-room school)….everyone out here is independent of everyone else (but we share a few random community docks now and then) and each home is standing at least one square kilometer apart (but we occasionally help one another)…so….I dunno….alone or not alone? Whatever the right answer is: we are not close and crowded.

Canada has an official estimate of 235,000 people also living homeless and, given that we are somewhat comparable to the US in many ways, I am guessing we have at least 100,000 living in vehicles (our climate likely reduces the usual statistical comparison rate of 10% of the numbers in the US).

Bottom line: a lot of people (tens of millions) are off the radar, off the grid, off the count-sheet and many are living alone and remote. In fact, Statistics Canada estimates almost one-in-three Canadians also live alone in urban areas! That’s incredible to me. That’s 10% of the population or almost 4 million live alone in Canada. In the USA, it is 38 million.

“Dave! What’s your point?”

I do not know what my point is or even what it should be but it seems to me that a society, a civilization, particularly our Western culture that has so many left out, opted out or not even counted; a society that has so many ‘barely included’, a huge number of those not-alone but living lonely lives (apartment dwellers not knowing their neighbours) all suggests that it is not a healthy society in which to live happily. If you adjust those numbers for those in jail, those who are newly arrived immigrants, illegal migrants, those obsessing over careers and fame and money, it feels as if there is no real, bona fide social society….well, not to me, anyway.

Put more bluntly: I think we may be seeing the emergence of the vanguard of the alienated (VA). The VA are an emerging subset?

The VA are, so far, not a thing (I kind of made it up)…not a big topic in the media, not a big category in the numbers or stats or data. Marketers aren’t aiming at them. The closest this phenomena has come to being a mainstream topic was Nomadland (a 2020 pseudo documentary starring Francis McDormand) and the advent of solar panels. But I think they will become an official ‘category’ soon enough. Furthermore, with Covid, working from home, telecommuting and the gig economy, the numbers are increasing every year.

People are checking out….one way or another…..

I am just musing here….but maybe the nomads and the lonely, the isolated and the remote, the OTG’ers and the gig-economy workers are the real life versions of the oft imagined/referenced Zombies in the imagined Zombie Apocalypse? I mean…if I am one of them, I am a happy Zombie but I am definitely not fully engaged in the society as a ‘regular’. And, it turns out, I am not alone. There could be as many as 50M VAs in North America alone.

Orson Welles once said: “We’re born alone, we live alone, we die alone. Only through our love and friendship can we create the illusion for the moment that we’re not alone.

Today he might add.…..”and it seems that our force for love and friendship is currently waning.”

The image of a pig in the python was/is a term indicating a bulge in numbers or, I suppose, a python’s stomach after a big-pig dinner. The best example we most commonly use is the baby boom following the second world war. The population quickly ‘bulged’ and continued that extra demographic girth for a couple of decades. Officially from 1946 to 1964.

It is interesting to note that, while the official baby boom was almost twenty years, the extra babies themselves then had babies and so the bulge did not just end, it tapered off. In effect, the boom ‘echoed’ and the next generation was often called the echo boom.

It’s a visual concept. A way of understanding an otherwise hard to measure phenomena.

So, imagine this…you see a large python slithering by and, like most snakes, you expect to see a long, rather conventionally snake-shaped body, like a soft tube. There may or may not be a bit of a bulge in the middle depending on the snakes dietary routine. But, lo and behold! This snake slithers by and there, in the middle, where it most definitely should not be, is a narrowing, a snake venturi, so to speak. Our python has a debutante’s waist!

And that is what is happening in some schools today. Maybe most. Fewer kids are attending full time and many of them are staying away in droves. And they have been somewhat AWOL for almost two years now. Many still attend but some are likely being home-schooled, others are pursuing other educational interests, others might just come and go but not attend classes consistently and still others may simply use it as an excuse to practice street hookey. However it shows up, they are just NOT showing up in the normal numbers at the normal times.

Covid, of course, is the main reason. The government dropped the enforcement of attendance mandate for the pandemic (May, 2020) and have not reinstated it (it is kind of nebulous anyway because home schooling counts as attendance if it is registered). As a consequence, a remarkable number of kids are not only NOT attending school, an even larger amount are ‘off sick’ a lot, absent, part-time and, in one local school nearby, some of the kids only go to class one day a week…..presumably to get the next weeks work assignments…but who really knows?

A few teachers I know are suggesting that some of the kids have already fallen so far behind, they have likely lost a whole year and are now working on the second. We may see 14 year olds in elementary school. Kids graduating high school at 20. Covid put a wrinkle in the school-time continuum.

On top of this wrinkle is a Nikiforuk. Andrew Nikiforuk, to be precise. A reporter with the Tyee. Andy is concerned that we have taken our eye off the Covid/Omicron ball and the epidemic is not getting better. It is, in fact, getting worse. Whatever chaos and havoc wreaked by Covid is still happening and, due to increased viral mutations, only going to get worse under the Omicron title.

We got sick. We got vaxxed. We stayed home. We wore masks. And all hell still broke out anyway. 50,000 died in Canada. 1.12M died in the USA. Supply chains broke. China came to a halt. And then along came Omicron and the cavalcade of variants. There are over 700 sub-variants listed today. Despite what everyone official is saying (or NOT saying) the pandemic is not over.

As an image-symbol of the disease, we have the narrow-waisted python picture representing school attendance. We also had the ‘supply chain’ constriction for products, food and other supplies which might resemble similar snake-imagery. And then we had inflation (which interferes with numbers). Inflation ran at 6% last year and is projected to be 7% this year. And, of course, they lie about it all (i.e I cannot find an official statement about school attendance records). And all that in just over two years.

Covid is still at work disrupting things. Andrew posits that it is now a different disease scenario and no one really knows what it is going to look like. One thing is for sure, tho……it is NOT going away. Read Andrew at https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2023/01/30/We-Face-An-Army-Of-COVID

Follow-up Further research yielded:

Legally, all children in B.C. must receive an education. But as a parent, you do have some flexibility about what that looks like. The province encourages you to enroll your children as you would normally, and have them attend classes.

The education ministry says school districts have flexibility to find options that work for families.

However, you can explore online or distributed learning (hybrid learning sources) if you’re concerned about your kids physically attending school. Those are available both within the public and private systems, and you can enroll your child in distributed schools outside your home district. Distributed learning classes are offered at 56 public schools throughout the province, in addition to 16 independent schools.

There’s also the homeschooling option which is basically up to you — no requirements or inspections. But even homeschooled children have to legally be registered with the province by Sept. 30.

Superintendents who receive a report of a child not registered for school of one form or another are legally obligated to investigate.

……the kind that I cannot help but continue to practice. No, not scotch-drinking. I can stop and start scotch. I can stop and start sugar. I even went vegan a couple decades back to see if it would make me healthier – I ended up in hospital with a gallbladder attack. (The doctor in the ER asked me, :”You didn’t do something stupid like go vegan all of a sudden, did you?”). I got me some bad habits but most of ’em I got under control.

But not when it comes to ‘projects’. Man, I gotta get me some professional help when it comes to projects. Help me stop dreamin’ ’em up, listing ’em and most of all help me get ’em done. I am on the verge of being outta control on projects.

But there is more than just new projects. Way, way, way more. I won’t bore you with the list of things I have NOT done nor will I bore you with the supplies I have bought that still sit in their shipping boxes. Suffice to say, I have a few…..

But, wait, there’s even more of the great UNDONE! We are starting to get in the supplies for a new water line. I have measured and plan to order soon all the lumber for the new stairs and some deck repair. There are the finishing tasks on the new boat still to do….I am planning on building a room under the house to freeze-proof the plumbing…and then, of course, install a heating system….

Last year (maybe the one before!) I fixed up a spring box and with help, got it up the trail to the head of the stream for placement. But getting it there was a long task and more pieces needed to come and some site prep needed doin’….and, well, the spring box still sits by the stream bank waiting to be placed. That’s really bad.

I have one generator half apart……

The island vehicle could use some attention…..the boats will need bottom painting….the garden soon….maybe a third cistern…..

….I am currently repairing some kerosene heaters (cannibalizing three that do not work to make up two working ones)….but it is currently too cold to repair the heaters out in the shop…

None of the above refers to all the tidying, inventorying, organizing that also needs doing or the daily-life chores that keep popping up…like…well, daily!

Sheesh.

Yesterday some Amazon packages came. That used to be good news. Now they present a storage problem, a cardboard disposal problem, a plan of action problem…..(help me)…..

One of the packages is rivnuts. I intended to re-affix my Pathfinder’s roof rack…you know….someday…when, like, I am over on the neighbouring island where it’s parked and I happen to have my tools with me and nothing else to do. Rivnuts are very cool. I got stainless ones because they are likely to sit around for a long time. I have so much else to do, ya know?